BK Chaturvedi
The Indian economy has grown between 8 to 9 per cent in the last decade. If we are able to maintain these high rates of growth, the size of the economy may reach $10 trillion from about $1.7 trillion by 2025. A key requirement such growth will be availability of adequate energy. As the economic infrastructure develops, our demand for energy grows rapidly. Economic growth without energy is not possible. This will have to be the foundation of all our economic planning. The total demand may go up by around three times in the next two decades. It is possible to moderate this by energy efficiency measures and changes in technology.
There are major gaps in energy access. Large population today does not have access to electricity. Village electrification programme, launched to enable them to have minimum power, has been moderately successful. Major expansion is required in large parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and most tribal areas. Availability of cooking fuel is another major gap. Of the 11 crore LPG connections, most are in urban areas and have low rural access. These needs are bound to go up in the future.
According to Planning Commission estimates, the demand for power for our economy in the next two decades will be anywhere between 800–1,100 GW from current less than 200 GW. India’s power consumption is only 1/4th of world average in per capita terms. There will be enormous demand for transportation fuel like petrol and diesel, too.
How do we meet this growing demand? The key fuel for energy sources today is coal. Of the total energy consumption in the economy, more than 50 per cent is provided by coal, around 40 per cent by oil and gas and the rest from hydro and nuclear energy and renewables. Current technological developments indicate that coal will continue to be the major energy source even in future. But large coal consumption can destroy the environment and lead to larger carbon emission. So we have to plan for environmentally-friendly mining methods. Mining will have to be done in phases and segments. Expansion of underground mining is another major initiative required. Simultaneously, restoration of mined areas to their original form or close to that in an eco-friendly manner so that sustainability of operations is substantially increased, would be necessary. Indiscriminate and unscientific mining has badly affected the environment. And there is a need for development of independent institutions, which can monitor whether the ecological and environmental commitments made by mining firms are being met. Compensatory afforestation can reduce the adverse impact.
I recently visited an area in Leipzig (Germany), which was once used for coal mining. It was an impressive view with forests and playgrounds for children all around. A huge artificial lake had been created from a spot where coal was once extracted and the area is now used by the town as a spot for children and families to visit and indulge in water sports. Why can’t we restore the ecology in our country in a similar manner? Why should we talk in ‘either/or’ terms? There are worries on carbon emission. These have to be seen in the context of our international commitment. Our economic growth policies must ensure that our future energy strategies work towards expanding the renewable energy basket.
So far, it contributes only around 4 per cent of the country’s total energy generation. There are particularly huge possibilities in wind and solar energy. The solar energy is an open area. If we can reduce costs and have effective development in the area of fuel cells, battery and storage, future energy use can be less carbon-intensive. Wind energy has also shown a great potential. It already has around 80 per cent of our total renewable basket. There are indications that the potential for wind energy could be as high as 6 lakh to 10 lakh MW. These preliminary estimates make huge assumptions about availability of land. There is, however, a clear indication of huge potential inherent in this mode.
The other important initiative is the use of energy efficiency. Today, there are huge savings possible from simple technologies. Development of CFL has seen a massive expansion in the last few years. While states like Himachal Pradesh have shown huge expansion, some others are moving towards this. The next generation of technology is in the form of LED. There are possibilities of using smart grids, technologies for reducing energy consumption in cement, oil, steel, aluminium and such energy-intensive industries. Introducing efficiency in energy guzzling appliances used for air conditioning, refrigeration, agricultural pumps or even fans and televisions can bring enormous savings. Since consumer goods are going to be used increasingly by larger population with increasing incomes, this is an important potential saving area. Along with these, public policy needs to promote a major shift to public transport and fuel efficient cars.
The next two decades will see a huge jump in the demand for energy. We must expand our fuel sources, emphasise environmentally sustainable coal extraction and a major shift towards renewable and energy efficiency polities. An integrated approach alone will ensure a smooth journey to $10 trillion path.
(The writer is a member of the planning commission
The Indian economy has grown between 8 to 9 per cent in the last decade. If we are able to maintain these high rates of growth, the size of the economy may reach $10 trillion from about $1.7 trillion by 2025. A key requirement such growth will be availability of adequate energy. As the economic infrastructure develops, our demand for energy grows rapidly. Economic growth without energy is not possible. This will have to be the foundation of all our economic planning. The total demand may go up by around three times in the next two decades. It is possible to moderate this by energy efficiency measures and changes in technology.
There are major gaps in energy access. Large population today does not have access to electricity. Village electrification programme, launched to enable them to have minimum power, has been moderately successful. Major expansion is required in large parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and most tribal areas. Availability of cooking fuel is another major gap. Of the 11 crore LPG connections, most are in urban areas and have low rural access. These needs are bound to go up in the future.
According to Planning Commission estimates, the demand for power for our economy in the next two decades will be anywhere between 800–1,100 GW from current less than 200 GW. India’s power consumption is only 1/4th of world average in per capita terms. There will be enormous demand for transportation fuel like petrol and diesel, too.
How do we meet this growing demand? The key fuel for energy sources today is coal. Of the total energy consumption in the economy, more than 50 per cent is provided by coal, around 40 per cent by oil and gas and the rest from hydro and nuclear energy and renewables. Current technological developments indicate that coal will continue to be the major energy source even in future. But large coal consumption can destroy the environment and lead to larger carbon emission. So we have to plan for environmentally-friendly mining methods. Mining will have to be done in phases and segments. Expansion of underground mining is another major initiative required. Simultaneously, restoration of mined areas to their original form or close to that in an eco-friendly manner so that sustainability of operations is substantially increased, would be necessary. Indiscriminate and unscientific mining has badly affected the environment. And there is a need for development of independent institutions, which can monitor whether the ecological and environmental commitments made by mining firms are being met. Compensatory afforestation can reduce the adverse impact.
I recently visited an area in Leipzig (Germany), which was once used for coal mining. It was an impressive view with forests and playgrounds for children all around. A huge artificial lake had been created from a spot where coal was once extracted and the area is now used by the town as a spot for children and families to visit and indulge in water sports. Why can’t we restore the ecology in our country in a similar manner? Why should we talk in ‘either/or’ terms? There are worries on carbon emission. These have to be seen in the context of our international commitment. Our economic growth policies must ensure that our future energy strategies work towards expanding the renewable energy basket.
So far, it contributes only around 4 per cent of the country’s total energy generation. There are particularly huge possibilities in wind and solar energy. The solar energy is an open area. If we can reduce costs and have effective development in the area of fuel cells, battery and storage, future energy use can be less carbon-intensive. Wind energy has also shown a great potential. It already has around 80 per cent of our total renewable basket. There are indications that the potential for wind energy could be as high as 6 lakh to 10 lakh MW. These preliminary estimates make huge assumptions about availability of land. There is, however, a clear indication of huge potential inherent in this mode.
The other important initiative is the use of energy efficiency. Today, there are huge savings possible from simple technologies. Development of CFL has seen a massive expansion in the last few years. While states like Himachal Pradesh have shown huge expansion, some others are moving towards this. The next generation of technology is in the form of LED. There are possibilities of using smart grids, technologies for reducing energy consumption in cement, oil, steel, aluminium and such energy-intensive industries. Introducing efficiency in energy guzzling appliances used for air conditioning, refrigeration, agricultural pumps or even fans and televisions can bring enormous savings. Since consumer goods are going to be used increasingly by larger population with increasing incomes, this is an important potential saving area. Along with these, public policy needs to promote a major shift to public transport and fuel efficient cars.
The next two decades will see a huge jump in the demand for energy. We must expand our fuel sources, emphasise environmentally sustainable coal extraction and a major shift towards renewable and energy efficiency polities. An integrated approach alone will ensure a smooth journey to $10 trillion path.
(The writer is a member of the planning commission
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